JFC
JFC's series A and B preferred shares have been finalized and are ready for IPO. Each series is priced at 1000 PHP/sh. Series A will be under the ticker JFCPA with a dividend yield of 3.28% and to be redeemed after 3 years. Meanwhile, series B will be under the ticker JFCPB with a dividend yield of 4.24% and to be redeemed after 5 years.
JFC preferred shares' dividend yields are the lowest as compared to the preferred shares that have been out for the year 2021. I previously speculated in a previous writeup that the dividend yield will be around 4.50% to 5.50% since the proceeds are going to be used to redeem their US bonds which have an interest rate of 4.75%. Moreover, preferred shares are riskier than bonds so it would've been fair to give a more generous dividend yield but it seems like the outcome is the opposite. Anyways, it's not like JFC is on the verge of bankruptcy. They can pay for the dividends.
The only downside for investors is that the dividends might not be that attractive to hedge the inflation rate. A news report a day ago said that inflation which is around 4% to 5% may no longer ease for the remainder of this year. BSP expects inflation rate to peak at 6%.
AREIT
Last week, AREIT disclosed that they were added to the Financial Times Stock Exchange (FTSE) index under the EPRA Nareit Asia ex-Japan REITs 10% Capped index category. This category represents income-producing real estate equities worldwide. I am not sure of the requirements of FTSE and made them decide to include AREIT in the index. I do not question their process but FTSE is a reputable organization consisting of seasoned equity analysts whose aim is to optimize the index for profitability. They usually see something that a common retail investor doesn't. For instance, Asiamoney, a financial publication entity, awarded AREIT as the Most Oustanding IPO in the country because of their financial performance, management, investor relations, client support initiatives. With that said, AREIT is seen as a reputable company to many and worth adding to the index. Nevertheless, institutions around the world that follow the FTSE will now have to rebalance their portfolio and invest in AREIT.
With all these positive sentiments coming out from AREIT, chances are, investors who are waiting for AREIT stock price to dip will have to wait longer. Some analysts share the same sentiment and suggest going for other REITs while the prices are stable, dividends are attractive, and haven't yet injected additional assets into their portfolio.
On the other side of the news, AREIT surprisingly declared their 3rd tranche of cash dividends this month at 0.44 PHP/sh. There was no increase in dividends this time and the payout will be at the last week of October in which is supposed to be the month that many investors start anticipating declaration of dividends. AREIT declared their cash dividends too early where in fact they just paid dividends a month ago. Usually, dividends are declared after the consolidation of the earnings of a quarter but since AREIT is in the rental business where rates are mostly fixed for a certain period, there's probably no point waiting for the quarter to finish since the income from rent is predictable. Meanwhile, it's been common that 4th quarter dividends are declared during summer in the following year. We might have to wait that long for AREIT's last tranche of dividends for the year 2021 or they probably might release again at an earlier date.
DDMPR
President Duterte has finally signed the POGO tax bill. Under the bill, POGOs will have to pay a 5% tax from gaming revenues. Meanwhile, foreigners working for POGOs are subjected to 25% withholding tax.
Taxes and such all look negative but this is a step to regulating POGOs. This is an indication that such business is formally legal and accepted in the country. Offshore gaming operators should see this as a sign that their business has a future and stability in the Philippines. Many of our neighboring countries do not allow such business or have unstable regulations. Our government is banking on this new bill with the hopes to attract POGOs to do business in the Philippines instead.
More than half of the POGOs have already left the country. Those who are left are assumed to be the ones legally operating. Since DDMPR houses mostly POGOs and Gaming-Related BPOs, investors speculate that they have a high market share of these legally operating POGOs because they were able to maintain a 97% occupancy rate. This remains speculative until we see the next quarterly report.
TEL, GLO
Both telcos have 5G scores increased according to Opensignal's global survey. They were scored with emphasis on download/upload speed, and video/gaming experience.
5G and its predecessors use wireless technology to deliver data to consumers but uses an optic fiber between the tower and the main core network. Sometimes tower-to-tower is an alternative routing of data to reach the main core network. The reliability and quality of these wireless technologies relies on the configuration of these optic fibers, strategic placement of towers, and the communication between these towers.
Network configuration and architecture is not as easy as it looks. A network engineer has to consider a lot of factors such as the terrain, limitations of hardware, tower locations, shortest routing paths, and so on. While planning, they have to emphasize the least-cost but optimal quality of service. The job does not end there because, at some point in time, they have to re-configure the network based on market conditions.
GLO upgraded its network by using Infinera's Auto-Lambda solution. This is a new hardware technology to simply plug in the device to their network and it is up to the technology to auto-tune the configuration of the network for optimal performance. Network configuration is a time consuming and costly process and using the auto-tune technology will significantly lower down operational costs and retain more of their income. Meanwhile, TEL has a solid partnership with Cisco, a worldwide leader in IT and networking, that helps PLDT deliver networking architecture solutions.
With TEL and GLO continuing to strengthen the backbone operations of their network, it is easier for them to improve the quality of their services and offer better technologies like 5G in the market. Moreover, other businesses that they hold such as digital wallet, digital bank, data center, and the like are banking on the reliability of their network.
AP
AP is planning to loan money from the public through bonds. The nice thing about it is that they will use the proceeds as leverage to grow their renewable energy portfolio. Recently many of these new bonds, preferred shares, and IPOs of other companies are using the proceeds to repay debt. AP aims to replace half of its portfolio with renewable energy by 2030. Recently they're planning to build and deploy a floating solar farm in the Magat reservoir of Isabela.
With the output of Malampaya decreasing and the government shutting it down this October for maintenance, the government is looking to AP's Dinginin power plant. It is a critical coal-fired power plant that would give enough supply for the remainder of the year. Dinginin has 2 units, one of which is scheduled to run this 4th quarter. The other unit is delayed due to lockdowns and is expected to run on the 3rd quarter of next year. The projects are being fast-tracked because of concerns with Malampaya and in preparation for the dry season in which power demand is at its peak.
With regards to Malampaya, PNOC, an energy company, thinks that Mindanao is going to be the next potential area to explore for natural gas. Places like Agusan, Cotabato, and Sulu are underexplored and could be the next Malampaya.
AP, SCC, SPC
The power spot market prices started to decline in the past few weeks and this is because we're already in the cold season and there is enough supply in the short term. However, on a year-on-year basis, prices today are still higher than the previous year. The continuous downtrend of price is uncertain because Malampaya will have to shut down this October. Malampaya contributes at least 30% of the country's energy needs. The operation of Malampaya is scheduled to resume in November but the lifespan is projected to be until 2027. With reduced supply of power, prices are expected to go up.
AP, SCC, SPC, and other power generation companies failed to fix some of their downed plants within a given time frame last summer. In effect the supply of power was reduced, rotational blackouts happened, and electricity hikes happened. The Energy Regulatory Commission (ERC) penalized these companies. This is by law to avoid price manipulation and possible conflict of interest.
SCC
In a surprising report, China claimed that it will stop funding coal projects overseas. This is to support clean energy. Though this does not imply that China will stop relying on coal because they have projected that consumption will peak until 2025 before gradually reducing its coal reliance. They aim to be carbon neutral by 2060.
China has around 44 coal projects being financed overseas. Once these coal plants cease to operate, then there will be a reduced supply of coal. International Energy Agency (IEA) on the other hand forecasted that coal demand remains to be up. With reduced supply and demand going up, we should expect coal prices to go up.
None of SCC's coal plants is funded by China. SCC will continue and produce coal as long as there is demand. They will benefit further from China's stance because there will be fewer competitors in the coal business.
GMA7
Manila Mayor Isko Moreno decided to run for president this incoming election. His stance with ABS franchise is positive. He will not block any effort to grant a new franchise if he wins the presidency. If it happens, this ends GMA7's monopoly in the broadcasting sector. The last quarter report shows that GMA7's net income is near break-even with ABS' net income only that the latter does not have a franchise. Once ABS gets a franchise, things might go back to the way they used to or maybe not because many personalities have already jumped ship to GMA7 and or another network.
The future of GMA7 is speculative. Conservative dividend investors remain cautious and continue to buy below fair value. The fair value of GMA7 remains the same even though they have significantly boosted their earnings. I noticed that the book value of GMA7 has not changed much in the recent quarterly report as compared to the previous quarterly report. This means that they have not acquired any assets of value. I am not sure where exactly they're using the earnings. Probably they're using it to recruit personalities from other network jumping ships in which they are an "asset" but cannot formally put it on the balance sheet as an asset because it is absurd to liquidate a person. Whatever the case, investors will base their stock price fair value with what is formally reported in the balance sheet. Meanwhile, investors and traders who want to gain capital appreciation are banking on their presidential bets. The stock price volatility of GMA7 and ABS is inevitable next year.
On the other side of GMA7, they have been awarded their 3rd YouTube Diamond Creator Award. Whenever a channel reaches 10 million subscribers, the Diamond Creator is given. Yet GMA7 is lagging behind ABS when it comes to digital platform and viewership, they're not going down without a fight. For some investors, the number of subscribers is not important because this is not directly proportional to the income. Investors give more emphasis on how much earnings a company can make from these subscribers.
PLC
The situation in Macau continues to worsen. Their government is making plans to end reliance on gambling as their main source of revenue. Macau is widely known as a gambling destination for more than 300 years as per history and legalization dated back as far as 1847. Many of the casino's licenses are about to expire and need renewal to continue operation. With their government planning to add non-gambling-related businesses as an alternative source of income, some casino licenses might not be renewed to give way to these businesses. The Chinese government has plans on integrating Macau to be part of mainland China. If that happens then many or no casinos will be left since gambling is illegal in China.
With that said, many casino operators and clients will have to move to another location. For instance, Melco which has casino operations in Macau, through the partnership with PLC would probably transfer their resources and clients in City of Dreams Manila.