PIFITA
The President rolled out the top 19 priority bills he would be looking at in his term. One of which is the Passive Income and Financial Intermediary Taxation Act (PIFITA). Under this bill, there will be a single rate of 15% tax on passive income regardless of currency, maturity, issuer, and other differentiating factors. This implies that the usual 20% tax of interest earned from savings or bond investments will go down to 15%. On the other hand, the usual 10% tax on dividends will go up to 15%.
For dividend investors, this news gives them time to re-evaluate their portfolios. Dividend investors who want dividends with capital appreciation (of course this carries risk) will stick to dividend stocks. Meanwhile, dividend investors who want dividends but preserved capital will have to think about divesting and moving to fixed-income securities.
PIFITA will probably give a clear decision for investors who are torn between investing in Preferred shares vs. bonds. Many investors who seek capital preservation jump to Preferred shares due to the fact that dividends are taxed 10% while the share price remains relatively stable until redeemed. With PIFITA, it shows that bonds are a better place to put in their funds.
DivY (Dividend Yield Index)
Last weekend, PSE released the top 20 stocks that will comprise the DivY index which will take effect this August. RLC, RRHI, SECB, and URC have been replaced by MREIT, DDMPR, FILRT, and RCR.
The complete list: AEV, AP, AREIT, BPI, DDMPR, DMC, DNL, FILRT, GLO, GMA7, ICT, LTG, MBT, MER, MPI, MREIT, NIKL, RCR, SCC, and TEL.
Much of the weight of the DivY index did not change. 50% of the weight is composed of MBT, TEL, ICT, BPI, and MER. There is a high probability that CREIT and VREIT will soon be added on the next index rebalancing date.
As of this writing, I am still not aware of a fund of any investing institution that tracks the DivY index. That being said, these REITs being added to the DivY might not significantly affect the share price for now.
ALFM REIF
ALFM is planning to release a Real Estate Income Fund (REIF) this August. This is a Mutual Fund in which they will invest their client's funds to Real Estate that produces a stable stream of income. This will include local/global REIT shares, fixed-income (e.g., bonds), and preferred/common shares from Real Estate companies. Since this is an income fund, investors are expected to receive consistent dividend payouts. There will be a management fee of 1.25% per annum and fitting for investors who do not have the time and/or skill to manage their investment portfolio.
As of this writing, no facts sheet has been released yet but it should be something to look upon. Once it is out, we should be able to see the projected dividend yield, frequency of dividend payout, and the basket of securities in the fund along with their weight in the portfolio.
There is no indication yet whether this will be offered in GCash as well similar to the peso-denominated ALFM GMIF (Global Multi-Asset Income Fund) that gives monthly dividend payouts as well. Since many of ALFM's Fund are offered in GCash, then there's a high probability that it will be offered after a few months from now.
This Mutual Fund gives positive sentiment toward our local REITs in the country. ALFM will be one of the investing institutions that will give volatility to the share prices of REITs.
PLC
During the SONA (State of the Nation Address), the President vowed to not impose any more lockdowns since our economy cannot afford it. That being said, we should expect the travel and tourism sector to slowly open. PLC was able to earn and maintain dividend payouts even during the lockdowns. With no more lockdowns, this should give a positive sentiment for casinos to do business. Analysts however are projecting casino pre-pandemic profitability by 2026 since it takes time for player confidence to return. For PLC, 4 years might be long to wait for PLC share price to go back to pre-pandemic levels. Dividend investors, however, might not see the long waiting time as a problem as long as the 80% dividend payout ratio policy is maintained.
A week ago PLC released its 2nd quarter report. They earned a net income of approximately 800 million PHP for the first six months of this year. This is 20% higher than the 500 million PHP they earned for the first six months a year ago. The increase is mostly due to lowered costs and expenses and not due to rising demand for a casino.
Things might be looking good for PLC but the sustainability of the high-yield dividend payout is at risk. Their balance sheet shows that they have around 700 million PHP left as free cash where they usually take out dividends for their investors. Using the 80% dividend payout policy, 560 million PHP can be given as dividends or a dividend of 0.02 PHP/sh. At the current trading price of 0.40 PHP/sh, this is a 5% dividend yield which is almost half of the usual 10% dividend yield. Of course, we have 2 more quarters to go and what we want to see is a continuous increase in free cash flow.
The reason why PLC was able to sustain a high-yield dividend even during the pandemic was that they were using the free cash that it saved before the pandemic. They've been giving at least 1 billion PHP as dividends from the free cash yet they have had difficulty achieving a 1 billion PHP net income since the pandemic. That being said, the free cash is slowly depleting not unless they reach the usual 2 billion to 3 billion PHP net income that they earn during the pandemic. The next 2 quarters and the next few years are critical for PLC's high dividend payout to sustain.
LTG
2 months ago I wrote a few reasons as to why LTG continues to depreciate despite having good fundamentals and a blue-chip stock. Such reasons include but not limited to family relations affecting the business, high inflation, politically at risk, and its indirect link to PAL.
A week ago the Sandiganbayan decided to dismiss the lawsuit seeking to recover Marcos's wealth. For context, Lucio Tan is a crony of Ferdinand Marcos in the past. Lucio Tan received tax breaks giving his businesses an edge against rivals. Back in 2007, Bong Bong Marcos testified that his father Ferdinand Marcos and Lucio Tan were business associates and that a significant part of Lucio's Wealth is owned by Marcos. Corazon Aquino and Fidel Ramos made attempts before to prove that Lucio Tan's businesses had been secretly owned by Marcos and therefore should be confiscated. Now that no confiscation is going to take place, I guess that's one problem crossed out for LTG.
PNX
A week ago BDO made a press release with regards to Dennis Uy's Clark project debt going default if not paid on time. The press release spread negative sentiment to all companies held by Dennis such as C, DITO, PHR, and PNX. All these companies have huge debts as well and Dennis going default to on any of his debts implies that he can't pay all his other debts. Fortunately, Dennis was able to pay it on time and he even sold 45% of Malampaya to Razon. Still, this isn't good news.
That being said, this is a risk for PNX4 and PNX3B preferred shareholders. Both preferred shares are now trading below the IPO price. They give a dividend yield of at least 8% at IPO price and are now higher since they are trading below the IPO price. The redemption date of PNX3B was supposed to be in the year 2020. On the other hand, PNX4 is expected to be redeemed by the end of this year. Preferred shares are redeemed at the IPO price thus it is an instant gain for investors who bought the shares below the IPO price. If ever these shares are not going to be redeemed on the supposed maturity date, their yield steps up. If it does, PNX4 will have a forward-looking yield of 15% at the IPO price of 1,000 PHP/sh.
The risk for PNX4 and PNX3B is in the capability of the company to continuously pay dividends and redeem the shares. A 15% dividend yield might not be sustainable due to weak earnings. Preferred shares are also not mandated to pay dividends on time. If PNX debts default, preferred shareholders will only be paid if there is excess cash during the liquidation of assets. The banks for whom PNX borrowed money will be paid first. The issue is the balance sheet shows that PNX assets cannot cover their entire liabilities. This implies that there is a high probability that preferred shares cannot be redeemed. We have to take note that preferred shares are not formally categorized as liabilities on the balance sheet.
Historically, I've never seen any preferred shares that failed in the PSE. Some companies issue new preferred shares/bonds to pay and redeem their old preferred shares to avoid the step-up of dividends. For sure PNX can't offer bonds because they have a bad credit rating. We'll have to see the course of action for PNX in the next coming months.
DDMPR
Besides being added to the DivY Index, DDMPR is also added to PSE's Property and Midcap Index. Recognition is good but this might not add volatility to DDMPR's share price since there are no funds that I know of that track specifically the DivY, Midcap, and Property index. Colliers Philippines, one of the respected companies in terms of research in the real estate industry, reported POGOs are slowly coming back for office spaces in the Bay Area and in Makati. Huge transactions for office spaces has been recorded in the area. If true, then this would probably be good timing for DDMPR in the Bay Area since 40% of their tenants are about to expire in the year 2023. As of this writing, DDMPR's buildings are not yet PEZA accredited thus it is difficult to entice BPO tenants. As of now, a bulk of their tenants are in the Gaming Related BPO sector linked to POGOs.
RCR, TEL, GLO
During the pandemic, the IT-BPM revenue increased year on year and exceeded the target revenue for the year 2022. The IT-BPM sector is anticipated to expand by 10-15% annually because digitalization is one of the priorities of the President as per the State of the Nation Address (SONA). Analysts forecast the BPO sector will continue to grow until 2030. That being said, RCR is seen to remain resilient with a high occupancy rate since most of its BPO tenants are in the IT-BPM sector.
With regards to TEL and GLO, their services will be heavily relied on by the BPO industry. This gives TEL and GLO some sort of defensive stance against high inflation and a high-interest rate environment that we're going through. The timing of TEL to activate its additional undersea cable system to boost international capacity is right on time. TEL is positioning itself to be the leader in data hub and data centers which is going to be heavily relied upon by BPOs. TEL plans to launch two more undersea cable systems in the next two years.
FILRT
FLI, the parent company of FILRT plans to infuse 3 Cebu towers into FILRT's portfolio once they become profitable. One of the towers is already 70% occupied by BPO locators while the other 2 towers are seen to be completed in the year 2023. The combined leasable space of these 3 towers totals approximately 40,000 sq.m.
Last February of this year, they made a disclosure that they will be infusing two office buildings totaling almost 70,000 sq.m. of gross leasable space within the year. Now that we have already halved the year, no new disclosure with regard to the infusion has been released.
CREIT
CREIT's parent CREC has been expanding lately such as partnering with ACEN to energize a solar plant in Pampanga, making a partnership with companies like Toyota, Shell, JE Hydro Bio Energy Corporation to supply them energy, and more to follow. Oliver Tan, CREIT's CEO mentioned that CREC's larger capacity and wider customer base will soon benefit CREIT as most of these assets are to be infused into CREIT in the next 5 years. Excess energy sales from their tenants to these customers are given as special dividends to CREIT shareholders annually.
Currently, CREC has 3 predeveloped solar farms, another 3 solar farms for site acquisition, and 1 run-of-river hydro being constructed. All of these are expected to be completed by 2023 and be infused into CREIT.
SCC
SCC has been added back to the PSE index replacing SECB. This is mostly due to the global energy crisis and the demand for coal as a source of energy despite renewable energy being the future. For how long SCC will stay in the index is unknown but coal is still trading near an all-time high and is forecasted to go higher. China, the world's largest coal consumer is planning to lift its ban to import coal from Australia. The ban gave an opportunity for SCC ever since the pandemic. Even so, coal prices are seen to remain elevated due to the war in Ukraine. The European Union is cutting Russia for their energy needs and some of them are going back to using coal as a source of energy. India, the second largest coal importer has still high demands for coal due to recent power shortages.
SSS, SSS Provident Fund, GSIS
A few weeks ago many companies have released their top 100 shareholders. Within the list, I look for stocks where the government is involved. The involvement of the government means they would do their part to protect their investment and their having large shares over a company gives them significant voting rights to steer the future of the company. I as an investor ride the dividend stocks where the government is involved because after all, I believe a part of the dividend income is what they distribute to our fellow pensioners. This is not investment advice but something I would like to share to add conviction to one's decision when buying the stock.
SSS Holdings and Ownership: DMC (1.92%), CLI (5.84%), GLO (2.04%), GMA7 (0.06%), MER (0.04%), MWC (7.24%), NIKL (2.05%), SCC (3.31%), TEL (0.69%), AREIT (0.28%), DDMPR (0.49%), FILRT (0.16%), RCR (0.03%), VREIT (1.57%), AP (1.79%)
SSS Providend Fund Holdings and Ownership: DMC (0.07%), GLO (0.04%), MWC (0.26%), SCC (0.01%), TEL (0.03%), AREIT (0.34%), DDMPR (0.12%), FILRT (0.07%), VREIT (0.19%), AP (0.07%)
GSIS Holdings and Ownership: DMC (1.50%), GLO (0.95%), GMA7 (0.17%), LTG (1.37%), MER (1.41%), SCC (1.38%), SGP (0.16%), TEL (2.25%), AREIT (2.23%), DDMPR (1.25%), FILRT (1.46%), MREIT (0.44%), RCR (0.78%), VREIT (0.76%), AP (1.19%)